According to a recent country study from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Bola Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate for the general election of 2023, is anticipated to succeed incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari.
In its most recent analysis, it predicted that Atiku’s chances of winning the election would be considerably hampered by the PDP’s internal strife and the rising support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s (LP) candidate, in the South-East, which has historically been the PDP’s stronghold.
Tinubu’s selection of Kashim Shettima, a former Borno State governor and fellow Muslim, as his running mate has continued to stir up controversy inside the APC and around the nation in advance of the election that will take place in 2023.
The same-faith ticket, according to the EIU, does not appear to have any impact on Tinubu’s chances of winning the presidency.
“We expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances,” it said.
In justifying his choice of Shettima, Tinubu has constantly told worried Nigerians, “I made this choice because I believe this is the man who can help me bring the best governance to all Nigerians, period, regardless of their religious affiliation or considerations of ethnicity or region.”
Despite his reason for the choice, many Nigerians, especially Christians have continued to kick against the choice till date.
“Atiku has more cause to worry. Not only is Obi eating into the PDP’s South-eastern support base, but Governor Wike, who finished second in the primary, does not appear to be interested in endorsing him,” the EIU said.
The report noted that with the amendment of the Electoral Act to accommodate electronic transmission of result, the role of the establishment in influencing outcome of the presidential election would diminish significantly, leading to the most fairest and credible polls since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
The report added that despite the presence of three major political gladiators from the three major ethnic groups in the country in the presidential race, the amendment of the Electoral Act would bring less disputes about the presidential election result.
Recall that the EIU had in 2019 predicted that the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar would win, the prediction turned out wrong at the end of the election as Buhari won Atiku with over two million votes.
Meanwhile, last week, the outcome of an opinion poll by ANAP Foundation showed Obi holding a significant lead over both Tinubu and Atiku.
In the nationwide poll conducted this month, Obi stands at 21 per cent while both Tinubu and Atiku are tied in second place with 13 per cent each. Kwankwaso of the NNPP is at a distant fourth with only 3 per cent.