. Nine factors that make LP flagbearer threat to Tinubu, Atiku
With the 2023 presidential election around the corner, it is not news any longer that Mr Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, is a threat to the two dominant political parties in Nigeria, the ruling All Progressives Congress, and the major opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party.
But do Obi and his supporters have enough electoral strength to turn over the apple cart in the February 25 presidential election?
After the bitter experiences Nigerians have had to go through since the return of democracy in 1999, and more especially in the past seven years, the people will on February 25, once again be presented with another opportunity of choosing who leads them.
This write-up considers nine factors that make Obi, a former Anambra State governor, and his ardent and committed supporters, who plan to install him as the country’s next president in May 2023, a threat to the APC and PDP.
PAST EXPERIENCES
One of the factors that make Obi a huge threat to the two dominant political parties in Nigeria is the experiences Nigerians have had under the rulership of the two parties.
For the 16 years (between 1999 and 2015) the PDP was in power, Nigerians had their expectations of good governance crushed. They had expected a stable power supply, a vibrant economy, and the eradication of corruption and poverty. They needed security and other dividends of democracy, but they had their hopes dashed.
With so much excitement, the people in 2015, rejected the PDP and opted for the APC only to see themselves falling into what appears like from ‘frying pan to fire’.
One of the factors that make Obi a huge threat to the two dominant political parties in Nigeria is the experiences Nigerians have had under the rulership of the two parties. For the 16 years (between 1999 and 2015) the PDP was in power, Nigerians had their expectations of good governance crushed. They had expected a stable power supply, a vibrant economy, and the eradication of corruption and poverty. They needed security and other dividends of democracy, but they had their hopes dashed
Political analysts say there is a high possibility that many Nigerians, having been disappointed by the two dominant political parties, may opt for Obi who is perceived by many as not corrupt.
‘ARROGANCE’ OF APC/PDP
The PDP and APC’s trademark arrogance, which believes they don’t even need some of their strong men and women to win the presidential election, is another significant factor in favour of Obi. For instance, Tinubu hasn’t visited any of the other presidential aspirants since the APC primaries and only appears to be listening to people who initially supported him.
Rotimi Amaechi, a prominent grassroots politician who finished second in the primaries, appears to have been overlooked.
In the PDP, the inability of the party to resolve the differences with the G-5 Governors led by Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike, will certainly rob the party of many potential voters who feel resentful that a northerner, rather than a southerner, is the PDP presidential candidate.
Both Atiku and Tinubu appear to be at a disadvantage because; unless significant agitations within their parties are resolved before election day, they may suffer severe losses in states where ordinarily they should have done better, political watchers have argued.
NEW ELECTORAL LAW
The new Electoral Act passed into law by President Muhammadu Buhari in 2022, makes Obi an obvious threat to APC and PDP. It is believed that both parties have occasionally used election manipulation to win political office.
However, with the new Electoral Law, it will be very difficult for any large or minor political party to rig the presidential election. Therefore, the outcome of 2023 and any future political election will depend on the strength of the electorate. That has occurred in Ekiti and Osun, particularly the latter, where a well-liked candidate defeated an incumbent governor who was running for re-election.
With Obi’s growing popularity, especially among the youth, there is a high tendency he may triumph over Bola Tinubu, and Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidates of APC and PDP, respectively, if the 2023 presidential election is free and fair.
POWER OF THE PEOPLE
This takes us to another factor that could help Obi to defeat both Tinubu and Atiku and succeed President Buhari: the power of the people.
Obi’s support is undeniably stronger among Christian and southern groupings, but despite this, the LP candidate is swiftly gaining acceptance even in the far North, where Muslims make up the majority of the population.
Large groups of northern voters are dissatisfied with the Buhari government and believe that they shouldn’t base their support for the next president on such metrics, if doing so would result in them losing out practically on all fronts.
In other words, these northerners, who are increasing in number, believe that if northern Muslims cannot improve their lives, there is no reason to base their vote for the next election on emotional preferences.
As things stand, Obi appears to already have in his pocket, the majority votes in all the South-East and South-South states.
In the South-West, while it is obvious that several people may opt for Tinubu on ethnic sentiment, many of the Christians in that region and youths may not succumb to that consideration, some analysts say.
So, it won’t be surprising to see Tinubu struggle to defeat Obi in the South-West states.
Besides, Obi seems to be the only one of the three leading candidates counting on popular support to win the election.
On the other hand, Tinubu, and Atiku are heavily relying on the backing of delegates (allegedly purchased with money), governors, Senators, members of the House of Representatives, and other party structures.
It is also the contention of some political analysts that while Peter Obi would likely make decisions that will benefit the vast majority of Nigerians who supported him in the election, if he is elected, any of the two candidates of the dominant parties, if elected, may use public resources and time to appease structures that helped them win.
YOUTH RISING
There has never been any time, since the return to democracy in 1999, that Nigerian youths have shown concern over who leads the country than now.
Speaking at Chatham House, London, on January 17, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, said that the 2023 general elections would be dominated by young people in Nigeria.
According to him, available records show that the election will be dominated by Nigerian youths.
Giving a breakdown, Yakubu put the number of registered voters to be 93.4 million, noting that out of the number that 37 million (39 percent) are young people between the ages of 18 and 34.
He added that they are closely followed by 33.4 million or 35.3 percent middle-aged voters between the ages of 35 and 49.
“Put together, these two categories constitute 75.39 percent of registered voters in Nigeria. So, the 2023 election is the election of the young people, because they have the numbers. Even the majority of the PVCs collected are collected by young people.
“So, out of the 93.4 million, 70.4 million registered voters are between the ages of 18 and 49,” he had said.
The fact that many Nigerian youths favour Obi’s candidacy is a clear signal that Nigerian millennials no longer want to tolerate the lords of the APC and PDP, who have continued to squander their future with reckless abandon.
CONTEMPTIBLE TREATMENT OF NIGERIANS
First off, anyone running on a different platform is deluding themselves since both the APC and PDP mistakenly believe they have an exclusive right to win the upcoming election. This implies a propensity to see an opponent with contempt, which has always been costly in every conflict or competition.
Due to the carefree attitude of the two parties, they both wasted numerous years of Nigerian youths through ASUU’s repeated strikes.
In Nigeria, under the PDP and APC administrations, graduates search for mundane jobs regularly on our roadways and in hidden crevices, and even these positions are hard to come by. Nearly all of the drivers on online taxi-hailing services have degrees, some are even having masters and other advanced degrees. Even though they are the fortunate ones, their lives have become extremely difficult.
However, the leaders of the APC and PDP are completely cut off from the realities of normal life in Nigeria because they never drive in regular buses, taxis, or even ‘Korope’.
Although they are the fortunate ones, even federal public servants do not do much better.
The only people who are doing better are those who work for the CBN, NNPC, and a few other federal agencies or those who have been given opportunities to steal from government coffers. Civil officials’ salaries do not cover their living expenses, and this is exacerbated at the state level.
The majority of those negatively impacted by the misrule of the APC and the PDP are those who would make up over 70 percent of eligible voters in the election next year.
The majority of them are more likely to go on February 25 to vote against the two big political parties, except for a small number of them who might allow themselves to be swayed by religion or ethnicity.
Both parties have before now believed they are the only options for Nigerians, and as such, can afford to treat the citizens with contempt.
But analysts say right now, Nigerians have another option, the Labour Party and its candidate, who seems to be more accessible to Nigerians.
AGE
Nigeria today has a myriad of issues and many of the citizens believe the country needs a president who is young, active, and vibrant. A president who can oversee the simultaneous and effective execution of his projects and policies throughout all sectors of the nation. A president who approaches every problem directly.
With the experience Nigerians have had with President Buhari, who over the past seven years, has spent over 230 days receiving treatment or having undeclared illnesses examined abroad, analysts argue that voting Atiku or Tinubu, both of whom are over 70 years of age, will be a no-no to many voters.
Many of the electorate may not want to see another president who will be flying abroad now and then, due to health issues, and wasting billions of money on medication.
Obi, who is in his early 60s, active and vibrant, may be the favourite of Nigerians who wouldn’t want a repeat of the experience with Buhari.
PERCEPTION
Many Nigerians also perceive the candidates of the two major political parties, APC and PDP, as being corrupt.
Both the PDP and APC presidential candidates and their spokesmen, on their own, have been at war, each accusing the other of corruption.
The fact that nobody has ever accused Obi of engaging in any kind of corruption, makes him a potential threat to the candidates of the dominant political parties.
Analysts say Nigerians who understand the effects corruption has had on the country since its independence in 1960, may have no other option but to vote for Obi.
With the experience Nigerians have had with President Buhari, who over the past seven years, has spent over 230 days receiving treatment or having undeclared illnesses examined abroad, analysts argue that voting Atiku or Tinubu, both of whom are over 70 years of age, will be a no-no to many voters. Many of the electorate may not want to see another president who will be flying abroad now and then, due to health issues, and wasting billions of money on medication
INFLUENCE OF RELIGION
Peter Obi has undoubtedly not been promoted as a Christian candidate. But even in the North, some support him because they feel that after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim, the presidency should go to a southern Christian. They believe that Nigeria can only survive through true integration.
Those who discount the role of religion in Nigerian politics seem to be fooling themselves, or maybe they just like the sound of their own voices.
Some of the most powerful Christian organisations and churches in the country have already urged their members to support Peter Obi.
Even some Muslim organisations have publicly expressed their opposition to a presidential ticket of the same religion.
Therefore, given the influence of religion in Nigeria, this suggests that many people in the South-West region would prefer to support Obi against Tinubu.
In the North, the tendency that many Christians who feel insulted by the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, and unhappy with the PDP for producing another Muslim to succeed President Buhari, a Muslim, will opt for Obi is very high.
All said, till February 25, we will wait to see if Obi and his perceived threats to the two major political parties will materialise into a reality.