On the 2nd of April, 2025, President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced the “Universal Baseline Tariff” a sweeping new trade policy that slaps a 10 per cent levy on all imported goods.
The move targets countries with what the U.S. calls “unfair trade practices” and includes extra reciprocal tariffs for those nations.
Nigeria’s crude oil and energy-related goods are exempted.
But the country’s non-oil exports worth over N323.96bn in 2024 are now in the danger zone.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show Nigeria earned around N4.49tn from exporting petroleum oils and gases to the U.S. last year. Those products remain untouched.
But everything else? Not so lucky.
Nigeria’s push to diversify exports has seen steady growth in non-oil trade. In Q1 2024 alone, these exports hit N74.79bn.
Key products included:
• Flours and meals of soya beans: N28.21bn
• Urea: N20.33bn
• Refined lead: N14.40bn
• Cashew nuts in shell: N11.09bn
• Natural rubber: N769m
In Q2, non-oil exports jumped to N123.23bn. Urea alone contributed N86.54bn, showing Nigeria’s growing strength in fertiliser supply.
By Q3, exports fell slightly to N84.38bn. Urea held strong at N39.20bn, but cocoa beans entered the list with N14.48bn in earnings.
Q4 saw the steepest dip: N42.55bn in total exports. Yet cocoa beans led the quarter with N29.92bn, followed by aluminium and rubber products.
Cumulatively, Nigeria shipped N323.96bn worth of non-oil goods to the U.S. in 2024.
Now, those goods face a 14 per cent tariff.
Urea tops the list of vulnerable exports, with N146.06bn in trade value. Cocoa beans followed with N44.40bn.
Refined lead brought in N55.23bn. Soya meals added N44.43bn. Natural rubber came in at N14.5bn.
All of them now risk losing ground in the U.S. market due to pricing pressure.
Trump says the tariff is necessary to “bring back American manufacturing and curb the country’s dependence on foreign goods.”
But for Nigeria, the fallout is real.
U.S. importers may pivot to other suppliers. Nigerian businesses could lose access to a key market. Years of efforts to promote export diversification may stall.
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Backing Trump’s move, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) accused Nigeria of restricting access to its own market.
“Nigeria’s import ban on 25 different product categories impacts U.S. exporters, particularly in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods,” the agency posted on X.
The ban, in place since 2016, covers beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medicaments, alcoholic beverages, and more.
In response, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, admitted the tariff would hurt non-oil exporters.
She explained that over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s U.S. exports are petroleum-based. Fertilisers, lead, and agricultural goods make up the rest sectors now at risk.
“A new 10 per cent tariff on key categories may impact the competitiveness of Nigerian goods in the U.S.,” she warned.
Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, downplayed the effect. He said oil and mineral exports making up N5.08tn of the total N5.52tn in 2024 are exempted.
He also pointed out that Nigeria’s 14 per cent tariff was far lower than Vietnam’s 46 per cent or China’s 34 per cent.
But the government is watching closely. “We’re going back to the drawing board to look at our budget all over again,” Edun said.
Economists warn of bigger issues. The tariff could raise consumer prices, slow manufacturing, and weaken global trade demand including for Nigerian oil.
In the last decade, Nigeria-U.S. trade hit N31.1tn. Exports stood at N16.4tn, imports at N14.71tn leaving Nigeria with a modest surplus.
Still, that balance could shift under Trump’s policy.
Ecobank’s CEO, Jeremy Awori, has urged African countries to strengthen intra-African trade. According to him, relying on one major trading partner puts economies at risk.
And now, Nigeria faces that reality head-on.