The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has marginally lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast, citing rising global trade tensions and economic uncertainty driven by U.S. tariffs.
In its April Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the cartel revised its demand growth projection to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), down from the previously forecasted 1.4 million bpd.
The group also reported a decline in the price of its reference basket of 12 crudes, which dropped to $66.25 per barrel on Monday, from $70.85 the previous Friday — reflecting the pressure on prices from both softening demand and market apprehension over the future of global trade.
OPEC highlighted that the U.S. administration’s tariff policies and broader trade dynamics have introduced new volatility into the economic outlook.
“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook,” the report stated.
Meanwhile, total output from the OPEC+ alliance — comprising OPEC members and key allies such as Russia — dipped by 37,000 bpd in March to 41.02 million bpd, largely due to cuts in production by Nigeria and Iraq.
The report follows an April 3 virtual meeting of the eight OPEC+ countries that had earlier pledged voluntary production cuts. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their plan to gradually unwind the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts introduced in late 2023.
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For May 2025, the group will implement a combined output increase of 411,000 bpd — comprising three monthly increments, including the one originally scheduled for May.
OPEC+ emphasized that this phased return could be paused or reversed depending on evolving market conditions, offering flexibility to maintain oil market stability.
The coalition is scheduled to reconvene on May 5 to determine production levels for June, with continued attention on global demand signals and price movement.
Despite recent pressure, OPEC+ remains optimistic about “healthy market fundamentals” and reiterated its commitment to balancing supply and demand while ensuring member nations meet prior production compensation targets.