Kehinde Fajobi
On 31st January 2025, Nigerians expected a significant update from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): the release of the newly rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.
However, nearly two weeks later, these crucial economic indicators remain unpublished, raising concerns among policymakers, analysts, and the business community.
The NBS, in an announcement dating back to October 2024, had assured the public that the rebasing exercise was necessary to reflect “current economic realities and account for structural changes in the economy.”
It emphasised that Nigeria’s last GDP rebasing was done in 2010—14 years ago—and that a more accurate picture of the economy was long overdue. Similarly, the CPI, which tracks inflation trends, was last rebased in 2009.
The absence of updated data now threatens to disrupt monetary policymaking and raises questions about the reasons behind the delay.
A Commitment Unfulfilled
At a sensitisation workshop held in Lagos on 9th January, the NBS reiterated that the rebased GDP figures would be launched by the end of the month.
Moses Waniko, a technical assistant to the Statistician General, stated, “We’re currently concluding the rebasing. We need to validate the results, and then we have to do a launch; we are looking at the end of January to do that launch, to disseminate the numbers.”
His remarks left little room for doubt. There was a clear timeline, and the expectations were set. The rebasing process, he explained, would impact key economic indicators, potentially increasing the size of the GDP and affecting the tax-to-GDP ratio, debt-to-GDP ratio, and per capita income. Such a comprehensive update was expected to guide economic planning and policymaking in the months ahead.
Yet, despite this firm commitment, January ended without the promised data. By early February, the absence of any explanation from the NBS was already drawing attention.
Economic Fallout from the Delay
The absence of updated economic data is already having consequences. According to a Nairametrics report, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has postponed its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for 2025 due to the unavailability of the rebased inflation data.
The meeting was initially scheduled for January 27–28, then moved to February 17–18, and is now likely delayed until March.
Nairametrics, citing sources within the apex bank, reported that policymakers were reluctant to proceed without the rebased CPI figures, which were expected to provide a more accurate measure of inflation trends.
“The rebasing of Nigeria’s CPI is expected to provide a more accurate reflection of inflation trends,” the report stated. Without this data, key decisions on interest rates and monetary policy could be based on outdated information, increasing economic uncertainty.
The rebased GDP was also expected to influence fiscal planning, debt-to-GDP ratios, and Nigeria’s overall economic outlook.
Given that the last GDP rebasing in 2014 significantly increased Nigeria’s reported economic size, the current figures could have major implications for government policy and investor confidence.
What Could Be Behind the Delay?
The silence from the NBS has left room for speculation. One possible explanation is that the validation process is taking longer than expected.
Waniko had previously mentioned that the rebased data would undergo rigorous validation before its release. If technical challenges have arisen in this process, it could explain the holdup.
Another possibility is that the rebasing exercise has revealed unexpected shifts in Nigeria’s economic structure, requiring additional scrutiny.
Given that the last GDP rebasing in 2014 resulted in Nigeria’s economy being declared the largest in Africa—surpassing South Africa’s at the time—officials may be exercising caution in ensuring that the new figures are accurate and defensible.
However, some analysts have also raised concerns about potential political considerations. Economic data can have profound implications on government policy, investor confidence, and public perception.
If the rebased figures indicate a less favourable economic outlook than expected, there may be hesitations about their immediate release. While the NBS has previously assured that its work is independent and free from political influence, the current delay could raise doubts.
A Pattern of Postponements
This is not the first time a key economic update has been delayed under the current administration. The CBN, for instance, had postponed its MPC meetings in the past, with its first meeting under Governor Olayemi Cardoso also facing delays as investors awaited his strategy to address surging inflation.
The lack of timely economic data risks further unsettling an already volatile economy. Investors rely on updated figures to make informed decisions, and delays can lead to uncertainty in the markets.
The rebased GDP figures, in particular, were expected to offer a clearer picture of Nigeria’s economic trajectory, influencing government policy and private sector strategies.
The Need for Transparency
While delays in data release can sometimes be justified by the need for accuracy, the absence of any communication from the NBS is cause for concern. A clear update—whether to confirm the expected release date or explain the reasons for the delay—would go a long way in maintaining public trust.
The rebasing of economic indicators is not merely a statistical exercise. It has direct implications for fiscal planning, investment decisions, and the country’s overall economic outlook.
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As Nigeria navigates a challenging economic climate marked by inflationary pressures and currency instability, timely and reliable data is more crucial than ever.
With the CBN’s next MPC meeting now tentatively set for March, the urgency for the NBS to release the rebased figures cannot be overstated. Whether technical, political, or procedural issues are behind the delay, Nigerians deserve an explanation.
Until then, the country’s policymakers and business leaders remain in the dark, awaiting critical data that should have been published weeks ago.