Prof. Steve Azaiki
As political waves continue to sweep through Nigeria’s already fragile democratic ecosystem, new speculations have emerged surrounding the possible defection of the Executive Governor of Bayelsa State, His Excellency Senator Douye Diri, from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC); and likewise His Excellency Siminalayi Fubara, the Executive Governor of Rivers State. While such a move might seem, on the surface, to be a calculated act of survival within Nigeria’s ever-shifting political terrain, it opens up deeper questions that deserve urgent interrogation—not just for Bayelsa or Rivers, but for the broader Ijaw (Izon) ethnic nationality.
The immediate context of this possible defection is familiar: a rash of political cross-carpeting by South-South Governors and the suspension of the Rivers’ Governor, leading to the unsettling optics of Bayelsa’s Governor now standing alone in opposition within the South-South Governors’ Forum. Such political isolation can seem untenable in a country where federal might often trumps regional conviction. But beneath this surface of pragmatic alignment lies the more enduring concern—the realpolitik of the modern Ijaw politician and the enduring Ijaw question in Nigeria. The question we must ask then isn’t just if he will defect, but how, why, and on whose terms?
Bayelsa and Rivers are no ordinary states in Nigeria’s federal constellation. They are the cradle of the Ijaw people—the fourth-largest ethnic nationality in the country and the most significant contributor to Nigeria’s oil wealth. The Ijaw question is not merely about minority representation, but about strategic relevance. To act politically from a frame of inferiority is to betray the very ethos of what the Ijaw nation represents in the economic backbone of Nigeria. The Ijaw man, as history shows, need not be beggarly or cowardly.
The Ijaw Politician’s Calculus
Realpolitik, the art of practical politics, is a survival tool that comes in handy for minority ethnic groups in Nigeria’s complex federation. For us the Ijaws, who dominate the Niger Delta’s oil-rich terrain, our economic significance offers a unique leverage that transcends our numerical minority status. The Ijaw have historically been maritime traders and fishermen, transitioning into a linchpin of Nigeria’s economy with the discovery of oil in the 1950s. The region’s resources account for a substantial portion of national revenue, yet environmental degradation and socio-economic neglect have fueled activism, as seen in the 1998 Kaiama Declaration, which disrupted oil supplies and underscored their influence.
In a polity where ethnic identity, regional bargaining power, and resource control remain pivotal, the Ijaw man—heir to a land that fuels the Nigerian economy—has often been made to act as though he must beg to belong. This is neither natural nor acceptable. The Ijaw ethnic nationality, by virtue of the Niger Delta’s immense resource contributions, is a dominant minority. We are not numerically superior, but the economic lifeblood of the Nigerian state flows from our creeks, mangroves, and oil wells.
Yet, decades of marginalization have produced a generation of politicians who oscillate between resistance and subservience, between agitation and assimilation. When Ijaw leaders make political decisions—especially seismic ones like defection—they must not do so from the weak posture of marginal players, but from the firm position of strategic stakeholders. Defection, if it must happen, must be a strategic alignment and not a desperate exodus. The Ijaw politician must master the craft of making his moves appear not just palatable, but imperative, as if his personal political ambitions were indistinguishable from the collective aspirations of the Ijaw people. This is where the true artistry of political leadership lies: in making one’s selfish desires become one and the same with the interests of the whole, and in doing so, invoking collective empowerment rather than collective capitulation. Only when personal ambition is couched as collective gain does it yield true political power. It is not enough to switch camps; one must carry the camp along.
The Ijaw struggle for justice and recognition is rooted in the legacies of towering figures who shaped the region’s political consciousness. Ernest Sissei Ikoli (1893–1960), a pioneering journalist and nationalist, used his platform as the first editor of the Daily Times to advocate for Nigerian independence and unity. His work laid the foundation for Ijaw participation in national politics. Chief Harold Dappa Biriye (1920–2005), a key figure in the Niger Delta Congress, collaborated with national leaders like Tafawa Balewa to amplify the region’s voice by advocating for minority rights at the Lancaster House and Willinks Commission, ensuring Ijaw interests shaped Nigeria’s founding framework.
Major Isaac Jasper Boro (1938–1968), a revolutionary, declared the Niger Delta Republic in 1967, a bold act of defiance against the exploitation of the region’s oil resources. His activism highlighted the Ijaw’s demand for a fair share of their wealth. Melford Okilo (1933–2008), the first civilian governor of the old Rivers State, advanced the cause through political leadership, fostering development and representation. Pa Edwin Clark (1927–2025), a veteran statesman, was a consistent advocate for Ijaw rights, guiding the community through turbulent political waters. Chief DSP Alamieyeseigha (1952–2015), Bayelsa’s first civilian governor, embodied the aspirations of a newly created state for the Ijaw people, pushing for resource control, self-governance and development thus earning the title “Governor-General of Ijaw Nation.”
These leaders, despite their diverse approaches, shared a commitment to elevating the Ijaw people’s status in Nigeria. Their legacies serve as a blueprint for modern Ijaw politicians, urging them to approach political decisions with strategic foresight and a focus on collective welfare.
Defection as Political Strategy, or Ethnic Abdication?
There is no denying that defection, in Nigeria, has become an accepted and often rational strategy in the game of political survival. But for a people whose history is marked by struggle, from the Isaac Boro Revolution to the Kaiama Declaration, decisions of such magnitude by top leaders should not be left to the narrow calculus of personal political gain. They must reflect a broader consultative process that includes elders, traditional leaders, youth movements, intellectuals, and civil society actors across Izon-ibe (Ijawland).
Political defections are not mere opportunism; they are calculated risks shaped by strategic imperatives. Politics Nigeria reports that Governor Diri has consulted senior Presidency officials and Bayelsa stakeholders, with mixed reactions. Lawmakers like Hon. Mitema Obordor, Hon. Fred Agbedi, and Hon. Maria Ebikake express reservations, wary of the implications for PDP’s regional influence. Others, like Senator Benson Agadaga and Senator Konbowei Benson, appear more amenable, while former Minister Timipre Sylva sees a defection as a boost for the APC in Bayelsa. Daniel Alabrah, Diri’s chief press secretary, denies confirmed plans, emphasizing transparency, yet the speculation persists.
The stakes are high. For Bayelsa, defection could ensure inclusion in federal patronage networks, critical for infrastructure and development in a state heavily reliant on oil revenue. However, it risks isolating Governor Diri from his political base and contributing to Nigeria’s perceived democratic erosion. The evidence suggests that extensive consultation with Ijaw leaders across Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, and beyond is non-negotiable. Such a process would align any decision with the collective aspirations of the Ijaw people, ensuring that political moves are not perceived as self-serving but as advancing ethnic interests.
This is where the absence of towering voices such as Pa. Edwin Clark is most deeply felt. His moral authority and pan-Ijaw reach often served as a compass in times of uncertainty. His brand of elder statesmanship—fierce yet strategic, loyal yet pragmatic—would have been an invaluable guide in navigating today’s delicate political crossroads.
Today, there is a vacuum. And in that vacuum, decisions risk being made that do not carry the weight of communal legitimacy.
The Ijaw Bargain: Dignity, Not Dependency
The Ijaw people must begin to reframe their participation in Nigerian politics, not as underdogs seeking inclusion, but as indispensable partners demanding respect. It is time to remind ourselves that while other regions may bargain with population figures, the Ijaw bargain is secured in oil rigs, gas pipelines, and international seaborne exports. This is not to say the Niger Delta’s wealth should translate into arrogance, but rather, into confidence and clarity of purpose.
When the Executive Governors of Bayelsa and/or Rivers consider defection, let it not be an act done in the shadows or under pressure. Let it be framed in a way that reflects strategic alignment, not desperation. For them and the entire Ijaw ethnic nationalities they represent, the stakes are not just political—they are deeply communal and symbolic. The swirling speculations currently making the rounds underscore a need for clarity, strategy, and above all, inclusiveness in any political recalibration.
In this context, I wish to passionately call the attention of Governors Douye Diri and Siminalayi Fubara to meaningfully involve critical leaders of Ijaw extraction in any discussions, negotiations, or political bargains they might be considering with the ruling party. The Ijaw, guided by the ethos embodied in the meaning of the name which is truth, must uphold such values and ensure her collective political strategy championed by the political elites of the Ijaw extraction is rooted in leadership legitimacy, collective benefit, and resource-based bargaining—not opportunistic party-hopping.
To move otherwise risks eroding the credibility of elected leadership and diminishing the strategic leverage the Ijaw nation holds within Nigeria’s federal structure. Political alignment must be framed through a communal lens and validated by consensus, not dictated by proximity to federal power.
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If any defection is to occur, it must be rooted in a transparent, strategic process that foregrounds Ijaw interests, brings measurable developmental gains, and reinforces—not weakens—the Ijaw voice in Nigeria’s political discourse.
Let it be guided by a vision of what leadership should look like in the context of Nigeria’s 21st-century political economy for the Ijaw man—a leadership that articulates the future of our youths, the peace of our region, and the place of our people in a just federation.
Towards a New Political Consciousness
The wave of defections to the APC, including those of prominent South-South governors, raises concerns about Nigeria’s drift toward a one-party state. Such a trend could undermine democratic pluralism, limiting the Ijaw’s ability to negotiate favorable terms. Ijaw politicians must remain vigilant, ensuring that their alignment with the APC, if pursued, does not compromise their ability to advocate for regional interests. The South-South’s shifting political map, with only Rivers, and Bayelsa remaining under PDP control, underscores the urgency of strategic decision-making.
The future of Ijaw political engagement must move beyond party loyalty and into issue-based negotiation. Whether PDP or APC, our stake should be in what is being negotiated—not just where the handshake is taken. Our allegiance must be to the dignity, development, and destiny of our people. We must build a political culture where no leader feels entitled to personal decisions without communal accountability.
If defection is to happen, let it be on our terms. Let it be an act of strength, not surrender. The basis of such political realignment should be a carefully articulated framework of tangible benefits for the Ijaw people—economic investments, infrastructural guarantees, resource control conversations, and a respected seat at the table of national decision-making.
In essence, defection by political leaders of Ijaw extraction, if it must come, should not be a narrow leap. It should be: deliberate (informed by statewide consultation), strategic (negotiating measurable gains), communal (validated by Izon traditional and civic voices), and historic (framed as elevation of Ijaw interest, not abandonment of principle).
The Ijaw man must not walk into a new party like a beggar at the door of power. He must walk in like a kingmaker—because that is what he is, and always has been.
Conclusion
Bayelsa stands today as the heart of the Ijaw Nation. Its leadership is not just administrative but symbolic. The Governor of Bayelsa is not merely the chief executive of a state; he is the political face of a people. Any movement he makes must resonate with the dignity, history, and aspirations of those he represents.
Let there be no illusions—politics in Nigeria is fluid, and alliances will shift. But when the Ijaw man moves, he must move not as a spectator to power, but as a stakeholder in the national project. The ultimate question, therefore, is not about whether to defect or not, but whether that decision advances the collective strength of the Ijaw people or diminishes it.
In this defining moment, let our leaders be guided not just by the allure of access, but by the burden of legacy.
By asserting his authority yet aligning with the collective Ijaw psyche, Governor Diri has one opportunity: to make any direction he takes less about himself, and more about sustainable empowerment for Bayelsa and Ijawland. Likewise Governor Siminalayi of Rivers State.
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Prof. Steve Azaiki OON, former Secretary to the Bayelsa State Government, was a Member of the House of Representatives (2019-2023).