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Australian researchers have unveiled new findings that shed light on how SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, evolves over time—advancing global understanding of how to better anticipate and respond to future variants.
The study, published Tuesday in the Journal of Virology, was led by scientists from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney, who tracked the genetic changes of the virus by serially passaging 11 samples representing nine major variants—including Alpha, Delta, and Omicron—over a five-year period.
By replicating the virus through more than 100 generations in a controlled laboratory setting, researchers were able to monitor its natural evolutionary pathways without interference from the human immune system or medical treatments. This allowed for a clearer understanding of the virus’s inherent mutation patterns.
“By growing the virus over many generations in a controlled lab environment, we can observe how it evolves without the influence of the immune system or treatments,” said Charles Foster, the study’s lead author and a researcher at UNSW’s School of Biomedical Sciences. “That gives us a clearer picture of its natural evolutionary pathways.”
One of the most significant findings was the recurrence of specific mutations across different virus strains, a phenomenon known as convergent evolution. These repeated changes, especially in the spike protein—the part of the virus that enables it to infect human cells—could impact the future effectiveness of vaccines.
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However, researchers also noted that other parts of the virus were mutating, sometimes more rapidly than the spike protein, pointing to a wider landscape of viral adaptation.
“Some of these mutations are already known to make certain vaccines less effective,” Foster added.
To support global research efforts, the team has made all sequencing data from the study freely available, encouraging other scientists to compare lab results with real-world clinical samples and continue mapping the virus’s evolutionary course.
Foster stressed the broader significance of the work, saying, “Understanding these evolutionary patterns is crucial for staying ahead of COVID-19 and preparing for whatever comes next.”